If you perused yesterday's FT, you would have across an interesting report on Oil titled "Oil demand falls for first time since 2009". In short, demand fell in the USA and EU but rose in Asia. However, rise in Asian consumption that was not enough to offset the slowdown in developed world. More importantly, Asian consumption was not that strong either with Chinese oil imports slowing. Base case is a small rise in demand in 2012. Worst case flat growth if global GDP stalls. Overall, International Energy Agency is worried about downside risks to the global economy and to oil demand. However, while demand for oil is sluggish/falling there are geopolitical risk (Iran/Hormuz Strait) that are keeping oil strong. So, oil market seems finely balanced on fundamental side.
On the other hand, charts are telling me that we are about to have a big move which has a great potential to boost P&L when traded sensibly. Daily chart is showing an Ascending Triangle with ascending trendline and 50MA coming right below current price. So, bias is bullish unless proven otherwise. A daily close above 103.35 will confirm the bullish trade.
But when you zoom in to 4H chart, it however looks ready to rollover. Oil broke through a small trendline, tested and fell further and now looks ready to accelerate down. So, get ready to short in case it breaks down through this green line (blue on daily chart). Stops should be at $101.00
Yesterday Silver broke through the downtrendline (daily chart not shown but you can see a green line on 4h chart) but finished the day with a Doji. It is testing the trendline as I write. On this chart you can also see a Bearish Wedge. So, be prepared for a short as well. If short tirggered ona break below the rising trendline, stops should be at $30.60
Good luck out there
P.S. Short EURUSD at 1.2983, then cover at least on 50 pips profit, then reverse/long plan so far is working. If you bought at/around 1.2910 as suggested, put the stop to breakeven or if adventurous at 1.2887.
On the other hand, charts are telling me that we are about to have a big move which has a great potential to boost P&L when traded sensibly. Daily chart is showing an Ascending Triangle with ascending trendline and 50MA coming right below current price. So, bias is bullish unless proven otherwise. A daily close above 103.35 will confirm the bullish trade.
But when you zoom in to 4H chart, it however looks ready to rollover. Oil broke through a small trendline, tested and fell further and now looks ready to accelerate down. So, get ready to short in case it breaks down through this green line (blue on daily chart). Stops should be at $101.00
Yesterday Silver broke through the downtrendline (daily chart not shown but you can see a green line on 4h chart) but finished the day with a Doji. It is testing the trendline as I write. On this chart you can also see a Bearish Wedge. So, be prepared for a short as well. If short tirggered ona break below the rising trendline, stops should be at $30.60
P.S. Short EURUSD at 1.2983, then cover at least on 50 pips profit, then reverse/long plan so far is working. If you bought at/around 1.2910 as suggested, put the stop to breakeven or if adventurous at 1.2887.
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