The Week Ahead

EURUSD

Minimum monthly target is 1.2977 while Jan 15 low at 1.2625 is my actual target. While this is the 2^nd weekly close below 1.31 – far more important than a daily read - daily close below 1.3028 should confirm weekly candles. I do not know if it is likely this Monday or Tuesday, but a bounce to 1.31 (+/- 5 pips) should be shorted. Expect momentum to slow down in 1.3049/23 area (Fib & swing low resistance)

GBPUSD

Clearly less weak than the Euro but it is very close to testing its intermediate uptrendline (now at 1.5825) as seen on the chart. The first test unsuccessful will take place on Monday, i think. Unsuccessful  because there are also Fib50% (1.5831) retracment & 50MA (1.5825). These three factors set the stage for a possible bounce in this pair. Bounce most likely to be muted and top at 1.5884. Thereafter I expect the trendline to be broken with downside looming large. Intraday, even after the break of the uptrendline, price may stall at 1.5805 area and bounce back to the uptrendline which, should it happen, will create a perfect sell the pullback opportunity. 

 

AUDUSD

Retest of the uptrendline was successfully rejected but the pair is now testing the bounds of the broken downtrend channel. I am neutral on Ozzie but because I am short biased in Euro and Cable, I think downside will prevail and an obvious short is 1.0288 level with 1.0250 and 1.0196 as the next targets. But a break of 1.0451(esp a daily close at or above) means 1.0540 is the next target.

USDCAD
Pretty obvious to me and therefore everyone else: it is building a base and a break from it will be full of steam. Look for a break of 1.0050 level. Watch 1H and 4H charts to enter either prior to 1.0050 or keep a standing buy order at 1.0060 if you do not have time to watch.

Good Luck