I have been tweeting every now and then but it has been a few weeks since i last blogged. The times are changing and we need to change as well. The result of changes in my life is that I am about to be a free spirit and focus more on trading, blogging and tweeting. This coming week, blogging will probably be infriquent but afterwards, I plan to be more active. Overall, I plan to tweet more as and when i see tradable opportunities.
So, lets get to the Euro and Sterling charts. If you do not want to read any further, just watch the breakouts (either direction) from Pennants on 4H charts :)
EURUSD
Overall, EURUSD is in downtrend as 200MA (not shown) is heading down. The distance between the price and 200MA got as large as 1300pips at the Jan 16 low, so the pair is working on reducing that distance. So, we have to be on the lookout for the downside trend resumption at some stage
However the pair is within short-term countertrend and currently, the Euro appears to be consolidating above Dec swing high and 50MA (not shown) before a possible upside breakout. The pair hit a major resistance (1.3217/30 range) and is just below Fib resistance or at Fib resistance if one draws it a la DeMark (here it would be highest close to lowest low). The expectation is for the Euro to test Fib 50% resistance at 1.3440 and this is where the high probability downside trend resumption is likely. This is my broad scenario.
Shorter term chart reveals the pennant this pair is confined to. I am expecting upward continuation but if it breaks to the downside, then shorts are in order. It will also mean that I might have to review my broad scenario described above.
GBPUSD
Same story here too. Countertrend within a larger downtrend. I will deem the larger downtrend over only when the pair closes above 200MA (1.5950) while a weekly close above 1.6150 in particular will confirm the new uptrend. In the mean time, I will stick to the downtrend. I am not quite sure about this one but I am inclined to think that this pair is also consolidating and the next move should be up. Major daily resistance at 1.5905/20 range and then 1.5950 (200MA) is likely to act like a magnet. At 1.5882, the pair has already tested the very edges of the major resistance. More should be forthcoming. However, current uptrend appears exhausted, at least temporarily, as Stochastics are diverging. Does it mean consolidation will take longer and be wider? We will see.
As you can, this pair is in exact situation like EURUSD. Last Friday, short term uptrend was broken & has been tested on the same day. Upside breakout from this pennant invites longs but with diverging daily Stochastics, one has to be prepared for shorts should the pennant be broken to the downside.
Next, I will post on Ozzie and Loonie which so far look very bullish (USD bearish)
Good Luck
So, lets get to the Euro and Sterling charts. If you do not want to read any further, just watch the breakouts (either direction) from Pennants on 4H charts :)
EURUSD
Overall, EURUSD is in downtrend as 200MA (not shown) is heading down. The distance between the price and 200MA got as large as 1300pips at the Jan 16 low, so the pair is working on reducing that distance. So, we have to be on the lookout for the downside trend resumption at some stage
However the pair is within short-term countertrend and currently, the Euro appears to be consolidating above Dec swing high and 50MA (not shown) before a possible upside breakout. The pair hit a major resistance (1.3217/30 range) and is just below Fib resistance or at Fib resistance if one draws it a la DeMark (here it would be highest close to lowest low). The expectation is for the Euro to test Fib 50% resistance at 1.3440 and this is where the high probability downside trend resumption is likely. This is my broad scenario.
Same story here too. Countertrend within a larger downtrend. I will deem the larger downtrend over only when the pair closes above 200MA (1.5950) while a weekly close above 1.6150 in particular will confirm the new uptrend. In the mean time, I will stick to the downtrend. I am not quite sure about this one but I am inclined to think that this pair is also consolidating and the next move should be up. Major daily resistance at 1.5905/20 range and then 1.5950 (200MA) is likely to act like a magnet. At 1.5882, the pair has already tested the very edges of the major resistance. More should be forthcoming. However, current uptrend appears exhausted, at least temporarily, as Stochastics are diverging. Does it mean consolidation will take longer and be wider? We will see.
Next, I will post on Ozzie and Loonie which so far look very bullish (USD bearish)
Good Luck
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