Currencies and risk in general at a make or break point.

If you are into seasonalities and cycles, then equities should dip from tomorrow into this Friday and possibly Monday.

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac 2012:
Tue 17th: Dow up 14 of Last 19,
Wed 18th: horrible since 1999, Dow down big 9 of last 13
Friday 20th: Dow down 10 of last 13 with big losses (over 1%)
Mon 23rd: also very likely to be down day.

Anyhow, with currencies at a break or make points, I wonder whether we should fade current USD sell-off and go long USD instead into Friday. At the end of this week, then we reverse and go long risk into Feb, which is seasonally bullish. This is just an outline of a plan. So, I will need to watch, whether currencies support my plan. At the end of the day, I will trade what I see.

Loonie is testing its daily downtrendline. The close below is bearish. It does need to overcome resistance clusters at 1.0074 however to give the final confirmation.

AUD is also testing its daily symmetrical triangle. Great chance for a low risk short. But you can see it has broken out of the bullish smaller ascending triangle within our symmetrical triangle. So that you are aware.

This is a channel the Euro is in. It is visible on a daily chart as well. All it needs to do is close above it. Unlike Loonie and Ozzie, it is not yet testing the downtrendline.

Finally, another laggard: GBPUSD. Broke down from bearish descending triangle and now testing the bottom. Even if it closes above it today, stay away till a daily close above 1.5422 is my policy. It is just too many clusters of resistance.

The day is not over yet, so I will be looking for reversal candles and non-confirmations on RSI to get long USD. Reward to risk is high with stops nearby. :)