EURUSD - as expected 1.1450 held & pushed this trade 170pips in my favour by end Friday.
On weekly charts (see inset), price is getting squeezed between 21 & 50SMAs, so either bulls or bears will give in very soon. I am bearish because: a) there is a potential weekly double top continuation pattern (the "M" pattern) and b) the week ended with engulfing bearish candle or rail road tracks candlestick pattern. So, I am waiting for the ST trendline break on a daily chart to short more but also aware that there are 3 important support levels in this 1.12-1.10 congested range and it is important to see a follow thru when the uptrendline breaks. I also do not want to see this pair back above 1.1460 because then 1.16 maybe the next upside target.
GBPUSD - last week I said above 1.55 will test the bottom of the uptrendline at 1.56. I was on the sidelines and did not short this pair. It needs to get below 1.55 and more importantly below 1.5450. Only then will I have confidence about its potential decline. Till then, there is nothing to do here.
AUDUSD - the weekly inside bar worked and this pair went higher. What now? There are reasons for both bull and bear cases. I am bearish bc so far there are more reasons to be bearish
Bull: broke thru 3 month downtrendline but now it has to hold above it. Previous breaks led to retests of the broken downtrendline and to pauses in this downtrend. Daily close above 0.7264 will lead to 0.7340/70 resistance range.
Bear: a) tweezer top, b) previously only when price closed above daily 50SMA did it lead to a pause in the downtrend and with both SMAs firmly pointing downwards, it is not looking good for bulls, c) in this year long downtrend, whenever RSI fell back below 50, the downtrend had resumed and such a close below 50 looks very imminent to me. In terms of price levels only when this pair closes below 0.7100 at least in H4 TF will I know that the downtrend will have resumed.
USDCAD - it bounced off 50SMA and is in back in the range.So nothing to do here
USDJPY - I will try shorts at 121 and 121.50/70 resistance area. Below 118.34 should target prior low at 116.15
Good Luck
On weekly charts (see inset), price is getting squeezed between 21 & 50SMAs, so either bulls or bears will give in very soon. I am bearish because: a) there is a potential weekly double top continuation pattern (the "M" pattern) and b) the week ended with engulfing bearish candle or rail road tracks candlestick pattern. So, I am waiting for the ST trendline break on a daily chart to short more but also aware that there are 3 important support levels in this 1.12-1.10 congested range and it is important to see a follow thru when the uptrendline breaks. I also do not want to see this pair back above 1.1460 because then 1.16 maybe the next upside target.
GBPUSD - last week I said above 1.55 will test the bottom of the uptrendline at 1.56. I was on the sidelines and did not short this pair. It needs to get below 1.55 and more importantly below 1.5450. Only then will I have confidence about its potential decline. Till then, there is nothing to do here.
Bull: broke thru 3 month downtrendline but now it has to hold above it. Previous breaks led to retests of the broken downtrendline and to pauses in this downtrend. Daily close above 0.7264 will lead to 0.7340/70 resistance range.
Bear: a) tweezer top, b) previously only when price closed above daily 50SMA did it lead to a pause in the downtrend and with both SMAs firmly pointing downwards, it is not looking good for bulls, c) in this year long downtrend, whenever RSI fell back below 50, the downtrend had resumed and such a close below 50 looks very imminent to me. In terms of price levels only when this pair closes below 0.7100 at least in H4 TF will I know that the downtrend will have resumed.
USDCAD - it bounced off 50SMA and is in back in the range.So nothing to do here
USDJPY - I will try shorts at 121 and 121.50/70 resistance area. Below 118.34 should target prior low at 116.15
Good Luck
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