EURUSD - last week was another reminder for me of having Plan B at all times. Then I won't get caught with my pants down. My such alternative scenario was weekly 21SMA pushing the price back to 50SMA and when it happened I was not surprised.
On Monday the Euro retested 1.1206 resistance where I went short. The next day it initially went down (naturally I thought!!!) but then came back up to close flat. Now, that got me worried a bit.The next day my SL @1.1244 - the high of the tall red bar from 2nd September - got hit (also see H4 time frame for clearer pic). Tall bars are relatively reliable as short term trend change indicators. So when last Thursday the Euro closed above the high of the tall red bar and back above 200SMA that a test of the nearest swing high @1.1337 and/or the bottom of the uptrendline was imminent, imo.
Having lost money on the short, I did not make money on the long side either because I did not get the right setup. In hindsight, as is always, I should have been bolder.
What is next for this pair? See the chart for commentary.
GBPUSD bounced perfectly from 1.5167 support to my target of 1.5331, a resistance. I got lucky by not shorting as it was 55 pips away from 1.5331 at the close of the day, and I did not expect it to get to my target at 6am in the morning and did not have my sell limit order in place.
Anyhow, the impulsive way it moved cutting thru resistance and H4 (TF) 21/50SMA was enough indication that 1.54/1.5440 was the next target area. My buy limit @1.5335 was missed by 3 pips :(. Close but no champagne!
AUDUSD - not much to add. It also bounced off oversold levels and is testing 0.71/0.7120 resistance area. Daily 21SMA is also right above. But we have got a very good looking weekly inside bar. Previous inside bars failed but also those that did not led this pair higher. So either 0.7163 (the high of the last down bar) holds or it will climb up to 0.7215/52.
USDCAD has been a pain in the ar.e, to be honest with you but it finally seems ready for a breakout. Daily chart is showing a tightening triangle. In this case I would expect a continuation up move but just in case ready to short on a break lower.
USDJPY - see the pic
Good luck.
P.S. I wanted to share a good strategy of mine that works best in H4 time frame.
On Monday the Euro retested 1.1206 resistance where I went short. The next day it initially went down (naturally I thought!!!) but then came back up to close flat. Now, that got me worried a bit.The next day my SL @1.1244 - the high of the tall red bar from 2nd September - got hit (also see H4 time frame for clearer pic). Tall bars are relatively reliable as short term trend change indicators. So when last Thursday the Euro closed above the high of the tall red bar and back above 200SMA that a test of the nearest swing high @1.1337 and/or the bottom of the uptrendline was imminent, imo.
Having lost money on the short, I did not make money on the long side either because I did not get the right setup. In hindsight, as is always, I should have been bolder.
What is next for this pair? See the chart for commentary.
GBPUSD bounced perfectly from 1.5167 support to my target of 1.5331, a resistance. I got lucky by not shorting as it was 55 pips away from 1.5331 at the close of the day, and I did not expect it to get to my target at 6am in the morning and did not have my sell limit order in place.
Anyhow, the impulsive way it moved cutting thru resistance and H4 (TF) 21/50SMA was enough indication that 1.54/1.5440 was the next target area. My buy limit @1.5335 was missed by 3 pips :(. Close but no champagne!
AUDUSD - not much to add. It also bounced off oversold levels and is testing 0.71/0.7120 resistance area. Daily 21SMA is also right above. But we have got a very good looking weekly inside bar. Previous inside bars failed but also those that did not led this pair higher. So either 0.7163 (the high of the last down bar) holds or it will climb up to 0.7215/52.
USDCAD has been a pain in the ar.e, to be honest with you but it finally seems ready for a breakout. Daily chart is showing a tightening triangle. In this case I would expect a continuation up move but just in case ready to short on a break lower.
USDJPY - see the pic
Good luck.
P.S. I wanted to share a good strategy of mine that works best in H4 time frame.
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