Below are 4 hourly charts of USDJPY and its AUD, EUR and GBP crosses.
Moving averages: 21 (pink), 50 (blue) and 200 (green). Keep in mind 200MA in 4H chart approximates 50MA on a daily chart.
My interpretation of USDJPY is that it has bottomed. It successfully retested its previous daily swing high at 78.00 falling through downtrend channel in the process (fake-out) only to reverse back above it. This fake out is a strong bullish signal in itself. Obvious target is 80.50. In terms of pips, it is best to play crosses and keep an eye on 80.5 level is USDJPY for partial profit taking.
The main question now is whether it will continue up or will it retest? Generally, I would expect a retest of previous lows (double bottom or higher low) but in this fake-out case, I am leaning to NO re-test but if I am wrong and JPY does a retest, then we get a chance to load up at lower levels.
AUDJPY appears the strongest compared to GBP and EUR crosses as it has retraced the most versus Fib levels but there is a daily downtrendline (green) coming up at 80+/- level. This is where the risk of at least one day sell off lies. Obvious buy point is 78.37 and further below on a re-test of a broken downtrendline/swing low/moving average in the region of 76.80/77.15
EURJPY is coming against Fib level/swing high resistance and this pair may struggle to advance initially but in the end it should overcome preferrably with a long bullish candle. Fallback to 98.30/50 is a buy. Initial target is 102.00
And finally GBPJPY - my personal favourite in terms of pips. It is volatile and requires a larger margin of error (stops) but this pair delivers well. First minor downtrendline is broken and initial target is 124.30/50. This is a Fib/Swing low/area with a downtrendlinejust above. So, I would not expect to breach through this level in one attempt. While a second target is 126.15/35. A dip to 122.30/10 area should be watched for a buy.
Good luck.
Moving averages: 21 (pink), 50 (blue) and 200 (green). Keep in mind 200MA in 4H chart approximates 50MA on a daily chart.
My interpretation of USDJPY is that it has bottomed. It successfully retested its previous daily swing high at 78.00 falling through downtrend channel in the process (fake-out) only to reverse back above it. This fake out is a strong bullish signal in itself. Obvious target is 80.50. In terms of pips, it is best to play crosses and keep an eye on 80.5 level is USDJPY for partial profit taking.
The main question now is whether it will continue up or will it retest? Generally, I would expect a retest of previous lows (double bottom or higher low) but in this fake-out case, I am leaning to NO re-test but if I am wrong and JPY does a retest, then we get a chance to load up at lower levels.
AUDJPY appears the strongest compared to GBP and EUR crosses as it has retraced the most versus Fib levels but there is a daily downtrendline (green) coming up at 80+/- level. This is where the risk of at least one day sell off lies. Obvious buy point is 78.37 and further below on a re-test of a broken downtrendline/swing low/moving average in the region of 76.80/77.15
EURJPY is coming against Fib level/swing high resistance and this pair may struggle to advance initially but in the end it should overcome preferrably with a long bullish candle. Fallback to 98.30/50 is a buy. Initial target is 102.00
And finally GBPJPY - my personal favourite in terms of pips. It is volatile and requires a larger margin of error (stops) but this pair delivers well. First minor downtrendline is broken and initial target is 124.30/50. This is a Fib/Swing low/area with a downtrendlinejust above. So, I would not expect to breach through this level in one attempt. While a second target is 126.15/35. A dip to 122.30/10 area should be watched for a buy.
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