Thursday 7 April 2011

Short updates

GOLD
Daily RSI is diverging and we have a confirmed doji today: I don't like that. Down day tomorrow? I do not know but based on the triangle or cup&handle conservative target implications, $1481 is the next target level. Target is admittedly far away but it is worth giving this trade more chance to prove itself with the remaining half. Stop at $1.429.

SILVER
The wedge did not hold and silver went right through it but it is sitting on top of the wedge and if it comes back into it, then a down move to $37.37 is possible where uptrendline currently is. Also, the first wave length was $13 (31-18). Extending it from Jan 24 bottom of 26.8, it would make it to $39.8. Current level of $39.6 meets minimal requirements already and at $40 extension requirements will be met fully. Zooming in on 4H chart, close below $39.17 on 4h will confirm short with a stop above recent highs

OIL WTI
After testing patience for three days it has finally rallied today. Provided it is an up day tomorrow, we can move the stop to $107.3 based on three up days rule. Target is $113.5 as per earlier post

JPY
Yen is taking a breather and i will look to enter shorts Yen if retraces a bit more. For USDJPY , 84.26 is a good entry level

EUR
It is at an important junction as it is testing weekly downtrendline. So, nimble is the name of the game till we find out who got the upper hand. 4h close below 1.4239 more likely will lead to a fall to 1.4170/75 area first. One large FX hedge fund is expecting Eur to peak this Friday, retrace for a couple of weeks and then rally all the way to 1.48. As a rule their opinion is not my opinion but it is good to know what big boys are up to.

GBP
It seems to have finally broken its weekly pattern of one week up and the next week down. Even it falls tomorrow, it is likely to remain as the 2nd up week and if it manages to close above 1.6271 this week, then i will look closely whether long entries lasting at least a week should be attempted. Zooming in onto 4h chart, we can see cable at a tight range of 1.6256 - 1.6363. Breakout above or below this range gets us into the trade with the stop on the opposite side of the range and the target being the width of the range. On 4H, MACD and Stochastics have rolled over but cable is at that stage of the trend move when middle of the Bollinger Bands acts as a support and pushes the security further up. I will wait for the range breakout

AUD
This one did not reach my downside target and instead confirmed its bullish uptrend by closing above its 6 month range. However, from Elliott Wave perspective, it is in wave 5 and is topping or has topped. It may indeed be topping but i still think it could rally further, possibly to 1.08 after it dips in the coming sessions. Only if it falls back to its its range, namely 1.01 level will i start to doubt my bullish case. In the mean time standing buy stop order at 1.0230, its previous weekly high sounds reasonable to me. Daily close below 1.0320 will indicate that we are heading to 1.0230 support.

P.S. On 4h charts, indicators are in bearish divergence for EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD which does not happen so often, or rather happens rarely. USD to rally today? We will find out in a few hours.

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