Shiny Metals & Black Gold Update

Gold Spot

There are contradictory signals coming from weekly candlesticks versus daily classical TA based on. On a weekly chart we had a bearish shooting star followed by doji. So candles warn longs to be careful here. Weekly MACD and RSI are diverging as well.

However, there is a bullish ascending triangle developing on a daily chart. While MACD and RSI are diverging, I would rather trade based on the pattern at hand than divergences. My bias for Monday is that it is going to be an up day and a close above $1,437 on 4h should be bullish with 1^st target of $1,450, the top of the triangle. Should gold meaningfully break out of this triangle, our big target will be $1,500. Alternatively, a test of the rising trendline is a buy with a stop below $1,410. But close below trendline and in particular below $1,410 means pattern failure and as such 1st target will be $1,390and 2^nd target will be the weekly uptrend at approximately $1,380.

Silver Spot

Silver looks strong on weeklies and dailies but I keep watching bearish rising wedge. Given bullish pattern in gold and a new 52-week high on OIL WTI, this contradictory message from silver confuses me.  Anyhow, at this stage the best way to trade silver is to sell at the top and buy at the bottom of the wedge. Down the line, we should watch out for silver to break to the downside from the wedge.

Oil WTI

Well, so much for divergences just on Wed and by the end of week MACD had a bullish crossover instead as oil made a new high from cup & handle pattern or a rising triangle if one draws a horizontal line at two tops. Initial target is $113.5. Buy intra-day dips. Stop-loss below $102.6. Most important stop level is $96 which is slightly below daily 50MA.