Sunday 23 August 2015

Weekend Update on Majors

EURUSD broke out of inner range @1.1210/15 having made a W bottom and 1.1450 is the next stop. W bottom target is 1.16. Also for the 1st time over a year this pair closed above 200SMA. which is bullish although I am not sure this IS the change of trend. Nevertheless, 1.1450 resistance looms large with RSI getting overbought and is a perfect spot to take profits and short. But if euro gets past this level, then 1.1685/1.1750 should come next.

 I am long from 1.1210 with a little top up around 1.1275 holding to 1.1450


GBPUSD no meaningful change from last weeks analysis. Cable broke out of the ascending triangle but follow thru so far is weak with long daily wicks on both sides . I am long since last Tuesday but patience is wearing thin and now wondering if a test of 1.56 is in the cards.


AUDUSD what seemed to me like Eve and Adam double bottom more looks like descending triangle and a daily break of support @0.7252 will confirm downtrend continuation to target 0.7015/50 range.


USDCAD - last week I mentioned weekly RSI divergence. Well, no divergence till we get a reading below 70 first. Instead my alternative bullish scenario is in play and as expected such crosses as EURCAD and GBPCAD performed spectacularly.


USDJPY - I sold the break of the ST uptrendline @123.81 I mentioned in my last post and managed to accidentally close the position at 122 (annoying) but I will short it on any rebound especially if it gets to 123. Today it opened lower and is testing another rising uptrendline @121.67 and is within 121.54-120.64 support range. I think a test of 120.64 is a near term possibility.
Have a look at Nikkei chart: on a 4th test it closed below a support at 19K since last March. I will happily short it on any rebound.

Have a nice week

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