Monday 5 March 2012

Monday update

The EURUSD trade i suggested worked well but short from 1.3230 stalled at 1.32. If this pair breaks out of 1.3240, then possible reversal area is 1.3275/90. Keep in mind that we may be looking at a possible "three day method" candlestick formation or my 2 in 1 candlestick formation because Friday was a long down day and today is a small bodied up day. Who knows, tomorrow may be another small up day? If that is the case, then expect a downmove to 1.32 and an upmove to 1.3240 or above. Altrenatively, 1.3225 holds and the Euro sells off tomorrow. Ultimately, EURUSD is a short candidate for me and I will play for the break of the uptrendline I mentioned in my yesterday's blog post.

GBPUSD: for now 1.58 held and this pair looks to be forming mini H&S in my 4h charts. There is an uptrendline at 1.5763 moving 3 pips up a day. I do not expect it to hold. 1.5886/1.59 is a great range to put out the shorts qith stops at 1.5910/15. Additional shorts can be put at 1.5833.

AUDUSD. Break out of the bullish flag was a fake and the pair is now back inside. I think we are looking at a possible pattern failure and I enjoy trading them as the move to the opposite direction is fast and furious. There is a strong support at 1.0650 and an uptrendline comes at 1.0625 (currently). Short levels are 1.07 and 1.0725. Sell the bounces is the policy here.

USDCAD: in my previous posts I mentioned the 0.9906 and 1.0055 range in this pair. It is back in the range with a vengeance....the sort of re-break one would like to see following a headfake. 4h close above 0.9970 is a harbinger of more upside to come including the break of the downtrendline based on Jan 12 and Feb 26 swing highs. currently at 1.0011 and is moving down 8 pips a day.

Major equity indices are testing their uptrendlines. FTSE100 and DAX30 daily futures charts downtrendlines are actually broken. I am watching to short DAX on a daily close below 6800. There appears a symmetrical triangle with an ascending tendency on 4h chart. I would have called it a bullish pennant (must be no more than 3 weeks) but I think it has now or just about to extend past 3 weeks. Same triangle in FTSE100. Triangle bottom breaks at 5860 and a daily close below 5850 will add fire to the oil.

Good luck




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