Tuesday 13 December 2011

2011 Outlook

You can read Michael's 2011 outlook here. If you already went through his 2012 outlook, you will notice that he updated some of the charts he posted in 2011. Anyways, the type of research I like is when you get a 3D overview of different macro assets where all the missing pieces of the puzzle are brought together.

In my post earlier today, I suggested a couple of trades, in particular GBPUSD and AUDUSD. As to EURUSD, I mentioned possible reversal points which turned out to be precise to 5pips which happens very rarely :). If you took those trades, congratulations. All i can add is this, while USDCAD and AUDUSD have not broken out from their respective symmetrical triangles, they eventually should succumb to the USD strength. It is all a matter of time. EURUSD is a toast and sell the rallies is the only game in town. Expect some resistance/profit taking at 1.2880/1.2895 area, Jan 2011 swing low and Aug 2010 swing high. As to GBPUSD, from current levels all the way to 1.5355 is a weekly major suport area (5th test since Sep 2010!!!) which I expect will duly be broken. With every test, this support level gets exhausted and the pair just broke out from the flag pattern one can see on a weekly chart. Weekly close below 1.5355 is very bearish. The ride down should then be very smooth (providing CBs do not destroy our plans) till 1.4885ish area.

Good luck



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