Wednesday 23 November 2011

Euro broke down from its recent range

The pair broke thru descending triangle and the minimum implied target is 1.3260, just above the low of Oct 6 (blue horizontal line = 1.3250). IMHO, it is more likely to go to 1.3180, October 3rd low on a daily chart below.
While RSI on this 4H chart is diverging, it is confirming on a daily chart and that is more important.  At most, this short term RSI divergence may result in a pullback to the resistance area of 1.3425/30. If it happens, then all those who missed the boat will have another shot at shorting the pair.

The last Fib resistance area of 78.6% at 1.3376 should act as a temporary support and at best can bring the pair back to 1.3425/30 level mentioned above. The blue descending line is likely to act as support in EURUSD’s descent.

My stop is at 1.35 maybe bit too close but it gives me good risk to reward and if my analysis is correct it should not retrace that far in the first place
Good luck

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