Wednesday 26 October 2011

Majors look set to give back some of their gains vs USD

Today is an important day news-wise: newspapers call it make or break or the Euro. Even if European leaders decide to leverage up, the underlying problem will still remain. The exercise in kicking the can down the road may give them another breathing period but they will not be able to put off the inevitable, imho.
Back to charts, and this is what 4 hourly charts are telling me. GBPUSD seems to have broken down (on metatrader where 4 hour candle ends at noon London time, it has not broken yet while on dailyfx.com net dania charts new 4 hour candle ended at 9.59am, it already has) from ending diagonal pattern which gives me minimum downside target of 1.5840.  To be on the safe side, price below 1.5975 is green light for shorts.
CAD is a buy at 1.0179 to target 1.0245 at a minimum
Overnight, Australian quarterly inflation came in lower and now expectations are for a first rate cut next week by the RBA. AS a result AUD took a hit across the board. AUDUSD has broken down from rising uptrend line though it may still run up to test that trendline which would be a nice short set up. Nevertheless, AUD is likely to fall to 1.0200 at the very least.
AUDCAD also gave back most of the gains of yesterday. I am trailing the stop loss below MAs and the uptrend line on 4h charts. So, the new stop is 1.0429.

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