Usually there is not much to do but today the plate is full

AFTERNOON UPDATE

EURJPY

See the commentary in the previous post. Anyhow, I have two scenarios (details in the chart) and so far I think scenario A may work. However, as you are aware equity markets are tumbling as I write so 1) JPY may catch a risk bid and 2) EUR is likely to tank further below current levels (need to see daily close). Then scenario b would be at play to buy at the bottom of the channel. If both fail, I am wrong and I am out.


AUD - bye bye my friend

A trendline of medium importance (medium term trend) has been broken and right at the top Ozzie makes symmetrical triangle, then makes a fake close above it for a day just to fall back in the next day and out of it today. Such fakeouts are good trading opportunities in themselves because everyone is caught on the opposite side of the move. Most importantly, triangles come as reversals patterns at the end of the long trend in ¾ of cases. The only thing I do not like about this chart is that Ozzie broke out very close to the apex of the triangle and breakouts close to the apex usually fail.  Trading Plan is this:

Short: 1.0040 and above. Stop: 1.0140 Target: 0.9550/60 (Nov 29^th swing low)

Triangle implied target: 0.9500 (approximately)

NIGHT UPDATE

EUR - short confirmed today

As i wrote previously my scenario B was to play on the short side on rejection of the weekly downtrendline. It appears scenario B is in play as the Euro closed today below an uptrendline from Jan 10th that was part of the rising wedge.  So, a further move down to 1.3725/35 support area is what i would expect coming sessions. That level should then produce a short term bounce. In the mean time, any throwback to 1.3845/70 area is an invitation to build additional shorts. Stop is above 1.3924

GBP -another short

This pair also closed below an uptrend from Jan 25th. A move down to 1.5985/95 where it will face Feb 11 swing low and 50MA resistance is what i would expect coming session. If cable closes below 1.5995, then we will be targeting the top of the downtrendline from Nov 4th and Jan 18th which is currently at 1.5885. A bounce to 1.6120 or above is a short opportunity. Stop is at 1.6220.

EURGBP

Today swing high at 0.8550 and a downtrendline at 0.8535 were tested which gave an opprotunity to long. Stop loss is just below 0.8455. 

 Charts to follow tomorrow....

I wonder whether USD rally will take a breather tomorrow and continue next week instead. 

Good luck trading.