Thursday 10 February 2011

GBPAUD, GBPJPY, JPY & CHF

This pair has been in a very long downtrend and now it does appear to have turned corners, at least temporarily. As you can see from the chart, sterling made a closing low on Jan 29 2011 at 1.5165. Subsequent rally high brought it to 1.6165 on a closing basis on Jan 20th. Amazing, precisely 1000 pips in 21 days. Afterwards the pair consolidated forming a classic flag pattern and now we have confirmed daily close above the flag.

Trade plan is following:
Entry at 1.6022, the close of the candle on Feb 10. I will also add in a bit at 1.5885/90 area should the pair come to test flat downtrendline.

Stop Loss:
1. Less conservative stop is at 1.5870 which is 10 pips below the breakout candle low.
2. Ideal stop is slightly below 1.5800 since only a close below this level would tell me I am wrong. So, I will keep with option 2 and will not risk more than 8% of my account.

Target: 1.70. It is 1000pips counting from 1.60. In terms of time, target should be reached in +/-21 days.

Resistance to watch out for:
1. First top close at 1.6165. Close above confirms our trade is on the right track
2. Next range is 1.6360/1.6400. I will be looking for a close above 1.6350, Nov 11th swing high close. As you can see, 1.64/67 is a congestion area from March to May of 2010.

My FX provder does not have this pair, so i will have to do two separate trades of long GBPUSD and short AUDUSD

GBPJPY
Late entry, so keeping my position small. I will however add if the pair comes to test 132.60/85 area.
Stop is at 131.45. Initial target is 137.32. Afterwards 141.00 and 145.00
Turning long term bullish on this pair. USDJPY below also supports this trade and majority of retail traders appear to be short currently.  Details to follow...


JPY
A bit late into the party on this one too! Anyhow, downtrendlines are left behind and the pair is in the process of carving out W pattern. We also have 3 higher lows and most importantly price broke to the upside from almost symmetrical triangle. Can it be the beginning of long move up to 95? Never say never. Interest rate differentials are also starting to move against JPY.But, most retail traders seem long already, which is not supportive of this trade at least in the short term.
Entered at 83.05. Stop at 82.10. Target at 84.30. If the target is reached, I will then be looking forward to 200MA currently at 85.23.



CHF
Scaled in at several levels (dotted green lines) based on double bottom - W shape - formation and do not intend to do anything at this moment. Stop loss is below previous swing low (dotted red line). Price closed above 50% Fib retracement but stochastic is rolling over and it is possible that today will be a down day. My minor target is 97.50 but my major target is 1.0038. Patience is key.

This is my first post so sorry for cr@ppy charts. Hope to improve them going forward.
Good trading everyone

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