Short update

Shorting EURUSD nad AUDUSD.  Recent swing highs are stops

Uptrendlines broken

Majors (EUR, GBP, CAD and AUD vs USD) have all broken their short term uptrendlines yesterday. However they are now sitting on their support levels, so I would not be surprised if a bounce ensues

Should Majors bounce versus USD, then these are the levels where shorting them present good reward to risk:

EURUSD could go to 1.3724 which is the neckline of H&S pattern on this 4h chart. Stop 1.3805. Target 1.3570

For AUDUSD, Minimum upside bounce target is 1.0218 . Above that look for it to kiss the broken trendline goodbye which is currently at 1.0275. Stop 1.0318. Target 1: 1.0010 & Target 2 0.9910

USDCAD can go down to 1.0150 or to the broken downtrendline where we can long the pair to the first target of 1.0335.

GBPUSD can go back up to 1.5740 before reversing to the first target of 1.5660. Stop is at 1.5820

At the end of the day, I am only looking for these moves as retraces and not a full blown USD rally. So, at some point I will be looking at shorting USD again, technicals confirming :)


On loonie

Just noticed USDCAD testing its Sept 27 swing low and is 1.0170 now. It is a good risk reward long USDCAD entry and it also ties up with my view of tactical (minimum a day) USD strength. I am wondering whether a close above 1.0175 on 10min chart will confirm it. Stop loss is 1.0135 and min profit target is 1.0250

Continue to be USD bear

I will post charts later but in the mean time this is what charts are telling me.

Currently I am a USD bear but tactically and in spite of the breakouts on 4 charts I see increasing chances of short term USD strength. In terms of trading it means, reduce USD shorts. Later I will review potential USD short levels where re-establishing USD shorts gives us good risk-rewards.

AUD - intraday price broke thru the daily neckline but with need confirmation on daily basis: AUD should close above the neckline. Then it would be very bullish. However, you may think about taking 50% of profits NOW and the rest at at 1.0170 because strong resistance is on the way and AUD likely to test the neckline before going further up. Stop loss should be moved to 0.9900

EUR - I am not sure it will overcome downtrending 200MA on 4H chart. So, I am halving it. Should it go down, it should be supported at 1.3664, potential buy EURUSD level.

GBP - I re-established long at 1.5650, just above the swing high on 1H chart but GBP is about to meet its 200MA at 1.5785 on 4H chart. My bet like in the case of EUR, it will lose the first fight. Then, it may go back to 1.5675-80, our buy area. Therefore, I am happy to trim as well.

EUR breakout

Although we got the overall trend right by turning bearish USD, trading based on an hourly chart has been a bit difficult lately because of whipsaws that followed breakouts from the levels highlighted (see previous post). Only AUD behaved much less erratically.

Anyhow, it is worth keeping in mind trading retracements is more difficult and I guess it is worth following the pairs on a higher timeframe and 4h charts in particular. Second, it is worth selling USD after it rallies rather than breakouts. This is what I will follow for the time being. Now, analysis.

EUR finally broke out falling wedge to the upside. Any return back to 1.3500 to 1.3485 area is a buy. Stop is 1.3360. Resistance: 1.3665, 1.3750, 1.38 (200Ma which is 50MA on dailies) & 1.3880

GBP is on the cusp on double bottom confirmation with a close above 1.5677. Close above it will give us 1.6011 as a target. Resistance: 1.5750, 1.5820, 1.5910/20 & 1.5990. However if 1.5677 holds, we head back to 1.5341 minimum.

AUD - coming out of the V bottom in an uptrend channel. I am not sure it will close above 0.9950 on the first try or above the channel for that matter. One scenario I will be watching out for is that it is rejected at 0.9950 level, goes down to 0.9750 where support holds and then AUD attacks and successfully overcomes 0.9950 level. That will form cup & handle pattern and the target it gives is 1.0450. However, that may be too rich because we have the broken neckline at 1.0035 (currently). We will see

Good luck

Buy signals

AUD: buy above this triangle

EUR - buy above rising triangle 1.3350 level. First target is 1.3400

Notice, how Euro got back into the channel on 4H


GBP
4h chart shows possible double bottom.
21MA at 1.5490 may slow down but above it GBP is going to 1.5550/60 area, its first resistance area. Then the next target is 1.5675/80

Now, pay attention to rising triangle on 1h, buy above.

Stop losses should be below rising uptrendlines

Good luck



Short term USD reversals?

I try not to predict but trade what i see and what i see now is this: there appears to be short term reversal patterns on hourly charts of EUR, GBP, AUD & CAD whereby previous swing highs are exceeded. Daily candles are also looking bullish (dojis and bullish hammers so far). So we might be looking for some relief rally.

How long may it last? I do not know but price will tell.

Bought little AUD at 0.9590 & GBP at 1.5474 (prices running away as i write). I think later today they may come back down and if they do, it is worth buying some more. Stops are below lowest lows of today.
Remember to keep positions very small because this is a counter trend rally.

I will post later on targets.

Time to bank our profits

Exit:

Eur at: 1.3165
Cad at:1.0560
Aud: 0.9442

As per previous post we shorted Euro at 1.3620 and added some more at 1.3540. This gives us 455 and 380 pips profit on Euro

Cad shorted at 1.0265 which gives us 295 pips and Ozzie shorted 0.9832 which brings us additional 390 pips.

However, we also lost 50 pips on previous long Cad trade.

Overall, we are up 1470 pips since Monday 26th September. Thank you very much, now beach time, enough trading!