Holding on to USDJPY long trade

USDJPY – weekly candle is bullish and any dip to 79.82/70 is a buy with a stop at 79.37. However, me thinks support at 80.00 should hold, hopefully. There is another minor support at 80.24. You can also see a clear inverted H&S with a neckline at 79.73 which gives a minimum target of 81.50. In the short term, 81.00 is a good resistance where some profits can be realised or short term short USDJPY trade initiated for at least 30 pips.

             

AUDJPY – looks strongest. Two inside days: waiting for the close above (hopefully!) for confirmation.  The bottom of the inside day at 80.17/22 is a buy area with a stop at 79.95 Resistance at 81.03 and 81.55 and a daily close above 81.55 means the pair is eyeing 82.65.

GBPJPY closed above the open of the long bearish weekly candle which is encouraging however it has yet to close above 125.88 on a daily basis. Once above 125.88, then  126.47 will be in play.

EURJPY – is the weakest cross. Though there is a lot of support at 100.30/10 I would hate to see a daily close below 100.36, Friday bullish candle low. Resistance: 101.52 and 102.07

Good luck

 

Trade ideas for June 13: Euro, Cable and Yen

Expected downside did not materialised. Short level triggers were not hit either (thank God)! Risk is still rebounding and I am still waiting for Japanese Yen to finally make its move!

EURUSD
Break of the almost flat trend should bring Euro down real fast while upside break from the box targets 1.26 min and 1.2670 max, IMHO.

GBPUSD
So far a surpsingly strong pair. Is it leading the rebound in risk? If I get long this pair, I am wondering if I should push my luck beyond 1.5646 since pennant width is approximately 220/225 pips

USDJPY
Japanese Yen and its crosses (Euro being exception) seem to be in Cup & Handle formation. Below I am focusing on the most promising ones

GBPJPY

Good Luck

Today's Recap

Euro resistance at 1.2660/70 held. Loonie support at 1.0200/13 held. Ozzie failed 2nd time to get above 1.00 (200MA also was at this level) while Cable was the weakest not even managing to get back to 1.5600.

Yesterday I wrote that Ozzie will find it hard to get above 1.00 while I expected Loonie to fall to 1.0150 with 1.0215 being my first profit target. End result, pips earned are half as what they should have been but still not a bad result for being away from markets today.

I think equities are trying to put a bottom (top in USD) but it appears we are due for a downswing within this bottoming process after an impressive rally (at least in American equities). In one week S&P500 went from 1263 to 1349, a gain of 6.8%. Based on netdania charts (http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/forexpowerchart/) S&P, Dow30 and Nasdaq 100 futures hit their declining 50MA and previous swing lows as well this morning. 4h charts show that those three closed below their previous swing lows although S&P and Dow30 are still above their declining trendlines. Therefore, focusing on the short side tomorrow looks reasonable. S&P short around 1301 to target 1290. European indices to trade are FTSE100 and DAX30 - the weaklings. FTSE100 sell stop at 5380 with initial target at 5345. Dax is a sell at 6051. Initial target is 6000.

FX levels to watch are
USDJPY sell stop at 79.09. First target 78.75
EURUSD sell stop at 1.2430 targeting 1.2350 and below
As per previous post, long USDCAD at 1.0356 and short AUDUSD at 0.9817

Trades I am in/watching next week

USDJPY
This time I will limit myself to USDJPY only since JPY crosses do whatever this pair does. But when I execute trades, I will most be focusing on AUDJPY and GBPJPY.
Daily chart with a weekly inset.

4 hourly chart

USDCAD

Suggestion was to long this pair at 1.0218 to target 1.0360 (the broken multi-day uptrendline). Price reversed 6 pips short of target and now I am short.

AUDUSD

Be definition, I am long biased in this pair

The interesting thing is that Dow30, S&P500, Nasdaq100 and FTSE100 are all in similar if not the same situation which implies correlations are running high among major assets. High correlations mean markets in stress. However, in current conditions it is better to get similar signals across as many securities as possible rather singular signals here and there. Currently, all those signals are confirming each other. Equities and FX may turn south next week (high probability with Greek election mid June) against all my bullish expectations but it does not matter at all. When facts change we change our mind too. Therefore, watch for plan Bs as indicated on charts should markets turn sour.

Good luck next week.

Quick update and recap

Initial targets set in AUDJPY and GBPJPY have been achieved but JPY and its crosses went south since then. USDJPY fell back to its channel. Unless it gets back above, we are looking for a deeper retest (double bottom or higher low). GBPJPY also fell back below its downtrend line and only EURJPY and AUDJPY are holding above. Levels to watch for a long are when EUR and AUD crosses re-test their respective broken downtrendlines.

Yesterday I mentioned long loonie on my twitter account ( @abror_aa ). That worked as well. It is just about to test the broken multi-day uptrendline. No need to wait for the pair to hit the uptrendline and better cash half of profits already. Rest realise on a touch (approx 1.0360) and reverse (sell short) with a stop at 1.0378/80 area.

I will post some more charts and trade ideas tonite.
 

JPY and JPY crosses

Below are 4 hourly charts of USDJPY and its AUD, EUR and GBP crosses.
Moving averages: 21 (pink), 50 (blue) and 200 (green). Keep in mind 200MA in 4H chart approximates 50MA on a daily chart.

My interpretation of USDJPY is that it has bottomed. It successfully retested its previous daily swing high at 78.00 falling through downtrend channel in the process (fake-out) only to reverse back above it. This fake out is a strong bullish signal in itself. Obvious target is 80.50. In terms of pips, it is best to play crosses and keep an eye on 80.5 level is USDJPY for partial profit taking.
The main question now is whether it will continue up or will it retest? Generally, I would expect a retest of previous lows (double bottom or higher low) but in this fake-out case, I am leaning to NO re-test but if I am wrong and JPY does a retest, then we get a chance to load up at lower levels.

AUDJPY appears the strongest compared to GBP and EUR crosses as it has retraced the most versus Fib levels but there is a daily downtrendline (green) coming up at 80+/- level. This is where the risk of at least one day sell off lies. Obvious buy point is 78.37 and further below on a re-test of a broken downtrendline/swing low/moving average in the region of 76.80/77.15

EURJPY is coming against Fib level/swing high resistance and this pair may struggle to advance  initially but in the end it should overcome preferrably with a long bullish candle. Fallback to 98.30/50 is a buy. Initial target is 102.00

And finally GBPJPY - my personal favourite in terms of pips. It is volatile and requires a larger margin of error (stops) but this pair delivers well. First minor downtrendline is broken and initial target is 124.30/50. This is a Fib/Swing low/area with a downtrendlinejust above. So, I would not expect to breach through this level in one attempt. While a second target is 126.15/35. A dip to 122.30/10 area should be watched for a buy.

Good luck.